Manager, RLC Forecasting and Demand Planning

About This Role

This role involves developing and refining five-year industry outlooks and Carrier-specific demand sensing outlooks for the North America Residential and Light Commercial markets. The manager will monitor industry trends, competitive dynamics, customer behavior, and emerging opportunities to shape near-term and long-range demand planning.

Responsibilities

• Leverage, maintain, and refine industry outlook models to forecast North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC markets for S&OP, Annual Operating Plan, and Long-Range Plan
• Pressure-test the Annual Operating Plan industry outlook forecast for achievability and reasonableness
• Generate supplemental industry outlook forecast scenarios through sensitivity analysis to provide senior leadership with lower and upper bounds for the forecast
• Leverage, maintain, and refine Carrier’s demand sensing forecast for Residential and Light Commercial to detect and respond to short-term changes in customer demand
• Collaborate with North America Sales & Operations Planning personnel to mutually develop the SIOP monthly demand forecast
• Track and continuously monitor and improve forecast model accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE
• Leverage, maintain, and refine PowerBI / QuickSight dashboard of standard planning and forecasting analytics for senior leadership
• Incorporate U.S. and Canadian regulatory changes and insights from the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team into forecast and demand planning models
• Maintain an in-depth knowledge of designated markets and trends through monitoring industry reports, market research, and relevant macroeconomic data
• Collaborate with Carrier Distributor Sales, Distributor Performance, and Strategic Account leadership to gather demand signals and validate forecast assumptions

Requirements

• 5+ years of experience developing executive-level summaries and presentations
• 5+ years of advanced knowledge and work in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint
• 5+ years of advanced demand planning and forecasting

Qualifications

• Bachelor’s degree
• 5+ years of experience developing executive-level summaries and presentations, advanced knowledge and work in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint, and advanced demand planning and forecasting

Nice to Have

• Master’s degree, preferably in Business Administration, Data Science/Analytics, Supply Chain, or related field
• Ability to work collaboratively and deliver results through virtual collaboration environments leveraging platforms such as Microsoft Teams
• Experience with business intelligence, analytics, data visualization and Supply Chain management tools such as Power BI, Tableau, ThinkCell, Kinaxis and similar tools
• Experience with statistical modeling, data science tools such as Python, SAS, cloud platforms or similar tools
• Familiarity with U.S. and Canadian HVAC industry, including current and future regulations and standards, market dynamics and distribution channels
• Knowledge of macroeconomic trends and factors and their impact on HVAC demand
• Proven ability to execute with speed and exhibit a bias for action

Skills

* Required skills

Benefits